Kameron's Weather Blog

Kameron's Weather Blog

Severe Weather Potential for this coming Friday

WeatherPosted by Kameron Douglas Wed, July 18, 2018 08:38PM
Enjoy the dry weather while it lasts as we have a wet weekend shaping up. Rain chances will start to increase going into Friday and will remain in the forecast through the weekend. Beyond the chances for rain we do have a chance for severe weather that looks to be on Friday.

Currently the Storm Prediction Center has almost all of Southern Indiana under a slight risk for severe weather the only areas not included in that would be the far southeastern portions of Southern Indiana which is under a marginal risk for severe weather. See Image below for visual of risks that I am referring to from above text.

My Thoughts:
At this point I am issuing a "DAY OF INTEREST" for Friday as we still have a decent time gap between now and then, and as I have mentioned in past times that models change constantly. Therefore I don't want to issue a weather alert day yet because if the models change between now and Friday which is likely that would mean a revaluation of the severe weather potential would have to be done and depending on the changes would then dictate what type of day I would issue whether it be a "day of interest" or a "weather alert day" and when it comes to issuing a "weather alert day" I want to be confident that the severe weather potential is at a level where something like that is needed. So in the meantime stay tuned for updates as I continue monitor the track on this storm setup and if I see it needed if warranted I will issue the "weather alert day" for Friday.

Current Setup:
Our current setup for Friday is there is a chance for rain Friday morning if that does take place that could help stabilize the atmosphere and this would help lessen the severe weather potential as the amount of time between the rain Friday morning then the actual severe storm chance Friday afternoon would not have enough time to recover limiting the strength of the possible severe storms Friday afternoon. If the rain holds off Friday morning then the atmosphere would remain unstable which means storms will not lose strength and only keeps the chances for severe weather slightly higher. With all that in mind that is where I am going to be monitoring the model trends between now and Friday to see what the track decides to do during Morning on Friday to then determine the severe weather threat for Friday afternoon. Overall the current track suggest that Southwestern portions of Southern Indiana is the area with the best chance for severe weather, we will see if that holds true when I reevaluate the models tomorrow.

If we do see any Severe Weather on Friday Afternoon the main threats look to be damaging winds as the primary threat, large hail as the secondary threat, and then a isolated tornado threat can't be ruled out as supercell activity is being picked up slightly on the models as of now will see what that looks like closer to time but most of all not a widespread tornado outbreak by any means but something to watch out for.

Timing on this severe weather chance looks like anywhere from between 2 and 3pm EDT. Friday afternoon as the start time and ending for Southern Indiana after 12am EDT. maybe a few lingering showers at 1 and 2am EDT. but I think all severe activity should be winding down by 12am EDT. I must stress that this current thinking on timing is based off of current model trends and that there will likely be adjustments as we get closer to time so stay tuned for that.

Overall I will continue to watch the track on this severe weather potential and will update on here again likely tomorrow evening so be on the look out for another update then. For now "DAY OF INTEREST" for Friday (this means I am watching for potential of severe storms and will update as per necessary during the time of event and or leading up to the event).

-Kameron Douglas

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