A "WEATHER ALERT DAY" has been declared for Friday July 20, 2018. This means that the threat for severe weather is at a level of confidence that will require keeping a close eye at the storms and updating frequently, In other words I will be watching these storms as they pass through our area closely and update as frequent as needed.
Currently the "Storm Prediction Center" has most of Southern Indiana under a Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms that is a category 3 out of a 5 category scale. The only areas in our area not in the enhanced zone is far northeast portions of Southern Indiana. You will see what I am talking about on the map below.
The severe weather potential will be broken into two lines. At this point to pin point exact timing is difficult because depending on the trends of line #1 will determine what line #2 does. For now just know to expect a severe weather potential early AM Friday and evening/early overnight Friday. I will update with more precise timing later on so stay tuned for that.
The first line of storms looks to be a damaging winds and large hail threat. Also, while I never like to say its not possible its not zero for a isolated Tornado threat. The second line of storms Friday evening pending on what we see out of the first line of storms will bring damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornados and also flooding is a possible concern with these storms as heavy downpours will be likely with these storms.
I think the greatest threat for severe weather looks to be areas highlighted in the enhanced risk zone but to be more specific areas in Southwest Indiana. I think most of all these storms will need to be watched as the atmosphere is favorable for storms to become super-cells as some of these may try to bow (curve) when they bow that can lead to rotation and or super-cells. I must stress this will NOT be a WIDESPREAD Tornado threat by any means. Like I mentioned above in the threats section of this blog depending on how long the first line sticks around and or at what time we actual see that move in will determine how the atmosphere reacts whether it could decrease the severe weather threat or not. If the first line comes in early which looks likely that means that there would be a break between the first line and second line allowing for daytime heating which will refuel the atmosphere for the second line which could then help build the strength for the second line of storms.
For now until we see how the first line sets in we won't know specifics for the second line. In other words it is going to be a waiting game so be patient and as soon as I am available to provide specifics I will update here on the blog and on the JCTV Weather Center Facebook Page.