Pardon the super late night blog post just now getting a moment to get this update posted. Now on to the update...
We have a chance for showers and thunderstorms today, some of them could be strong at times and even a few severe storms not out of the question. Overall the chance for any severe weather looks to be a low end threat and I will explain why below.
First lets go over what the risk level is for today's severe weather potential. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has all of Southern Indiana under a marginal risk for severe storms which is a category 1 on a 5 category scale. Despite the fact that the risk for severe storms will be low I think a marginal risk is appropriate and I will dive into that below.
"This graphic is showing the marginal risk in which I was referring to in the above text"Setup Explanation:
So as I briefly mentioned above that our chances for severe weather are low. The reason for that is because we lack wind energy which is a component to severe weather as it is what drives the storm to setting the atmosphere for more damaging wind type risk along with it can also create an environment for Tornados and because we lack wind energy it takes a great part of the risk out all together. The only real part of the severe weather ingredients we do have is some instability not a lot but some. So when I look at the amount of CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy we have 1,000 Joules of available energy. With that amount of energy that is not enough to support widespread and or organized severe weather but that there is at least enough energy to support some isolated severe storms. I think the main thing fueling the atmosphere with the small instability that I mentioned above is dew points in the 70s and temperatures in the 80s. Severe Weather Risks:
If we do see any severe weather we could see elevated winds in excess of 20-30mph, small hail, heavy downpours and lightning.
Just to point out within the risks I listed above notice I mentioned the wind gusts will only be at around 20-30mph that is why I say that we lack wind energy. For a storm to qualify for a severe thunderstorm warning type criteria we must sustain at least 58mph winds and at least 1 inch hail diameter. I point this out as I want to make sure you as my viewers understand how the wind energy component is effecting today's severe weather potential. Timing:
The timing on these storms looks to be 2pm EDT. in the afternoon as the start time and ending after 8pm EDT. With some lingering showers later on in the night but those don't look severe as of now just the line of storms between 2-8pm EDT. that is listed as marginal risk. Final Thoughts:
Overall with the lack of wind energy I think in terms of severe weather we won't have much to worry about today. Anything that we do see will be minor. Also to note with this cold front bring rain to our area today it will help try to cool temperatures down some we should see highs in the mid 80s today and lowering to the lower 80s tomorrow, Not much of a relief but I would say any relief is better than none at all. Also rain chances are also on tap for Wednesday no signs of severe weather are present though at this time.
For now I will keep an eye on these storms when they make way into Southern Indiana Tuesday Afternoon/Evening and will update as per needed.
As far as a category for today's risk I am classifying today as a: DAY OF INTEREST