WeatherPosted by Kameron Douglas Tue, August 07, 2018 03:28AM
Pardon the super late night blog post just now getting a moment to get this update posted. Now on to the update...
We have a chance for showers and thunderstorms today, some of them could be strong at times and even a few severe storms not out of the question. Overall the chance for any severe weather looks to be a low end threat and I will explain why below.
First lets go over what the risk level is for today's severe weather potential. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has all of Southern Indiana under a marginal risk for severe storms which is a category 1 on a 5 category scale. Despite the fact that the risk for severe storms will be low I think a marginal risk is appropriate and I will dive into that below.
"This graphic is showing the marginal risk in which I was referring to in the above text"Setup Explanation:
So as I briefly mentioned above that our chances for severe weather are low. The reason for that is because we lack wind energy which is a component to severe weather as it is what drives the storm to setting the atmosphere for more damaging wind type risk along with it can also create an environment for Tornados and because we lack wind energy it takes a great part of the risk out all together. The only real part of the severe weather ingredients we do have is some instability not a lot but some. So when I look at the amount of CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy we have 1,000 Joules of available energy. With that amount of energy that is not enough to support widespread and or organized severe weather but that there is at least enough energy to support some isolated severe storms. I think the main thing fueling the atmosphere with the small instability that I mentioned above is dew points in the 70s and temperatures in the 80s. Severe Weather Risks:
If we do see any severe weather we could see elevated winds in excess of 20-30mph, small hail, heavy downpours and lightning.
Just to point out within the risks I listed above notice I mentioned the wind gusts will only be at around 20-30mph that is why I say that we lack wind energy. For a storm to qualify for a severe thunderstorm warning type criteria we must sustain at least 58mph winds and at least 1 inch hail diameter. I point this out as I want to make sure you as my viewers understand how the wind energy component is effecting today's severe weather potential. Timing:
The timing on these storms looks to be 2pm EDT. in the afternoon as the start time and ending after 8pm EDT. With some lingering showers later on in the night but those don't look severe as of now just the line of storms between 2-8pm EDT. that is listed as marginal risk. Final Thoughts:
Overall with the lack of wind energy I think in terms of severe weather we won't have much to worry about today. Anything that we do see will be minor. Also to note with this cold front bring rain to our area today it will help try to cool temperatures down some we should see highs in the mid 80s today and lowering to the lower 80s tomorrow, Not much of a relief but I would say any relief is better than none at all. Also rain chances are also on tap for Wednesday no signs of severe weather are present though at this time.
For now I will keep an eye on these storms when they make way into Southern Indiana Tuesday Afternoon/Evening and will update as per needed.
As far as a category for today's risk I am classifying today as a: DAY OF INTEREST
WeatherPosted by Kameron Douglas Fri, July 20, 2018 12:11AM
A "WEATHER ALERT DAY" has been declared for Friday July 20, 2018. This means that the threat for severe weather is at a level of confidence that will require keeping a close eye at the storms and updating frequently, In other words I will be watching these storms as they pass through our area closely and update as frequent as needed.
Currently the "Storm Prediction Center" has most of Southern Indiana under a Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms that is a category 3 out of a 5 category scale. The only areas in our area not in the enhanced zone is far northeast portions of Southern Indiana. You will see what I am talking about on the map below. Timing:
The severe weather potential will be broken into two lines. At this point to pin point exact timing is difficult because depending on the trends of line #1 will determine what line #2 does. For now just know to expect a severe weather potential early AM Friday and evening/early overnight Friday. I will update with more precise timing later on so stay tuned for that. Threats:
The first line of storms looks to be a damaging winds and large hail threat. Also, while I never like to say its not possible its not zero for a isolated Tornado threat. The second line of storms Friday evening pending on what we see out of the first line of storms will bring damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornados and also flooding is a possible concern with these storms as heavy downpours will be likely with these storms. My Thoughts:
I think the greatest threat for severe weather looks to be areas highlighted in the enhanced risk zone but to be more specific areas in Southwest Indiana. I think most of all these storms will need to be watched as the atmosphere is favorable for storms to become super-cells as some of these may try to bow (curve) when they bow that can lead to rotation and or super-cells. I must stress this will NOT be a WIDESPREAD Tornado threat by any means. Like I mentioned above in the threats section of this blog depending on how long the first line sticks around and or at what time we actual see that move in will determine how the atmosphere reacts whether it could decrease the severe weather threat or not. If the first line comes in early which looks likely that means that there would be a break between the first line and second line allowing for daytime heating which will refuel the atmosphere for the second line which could then help build the strength for the second line of storms. Overall:
For now until we see how the first line sets in we won't know specifics for the second line. In other words it is going to be a waiting game so be patient and as soon as I am available to provide specifics I will update here on the blog and on the JCTV Weather Center Facebook Page.
WeatherPosted by Kameron Douglas Wed, July 18, 2018 08:38PM
Enjoy the dry weather while it lasts as we have a wet weekend shaping up. Rain chances will start to increase going into Friday and will remain in the forecast through the weekend. Beyond the chances for rain we do have a chance for severe weather that looks to be on Friday.
Currently the Storm Prediction Center has almost all of Southern Indiana under a slight risk for severe weather the only areas not included in that would be the far southeastern portions of Southern Indiana which is under a marginal risk for severe weather. See Image below for visual of risks that I am referring to from above text.
At this point I am issuing a "DAY OF INTEREST" for Friday as we still have a decent time gap between now and then, and as I have mentioned in past times that models change constantly. Therefore I don't want to issue a weather alert day yet because if the models change between now and Friday which is likely that would mean a revaluation of the severe weather potential would have to be done and depending on the changes would then dictate what type of day I would issue whether it be a "day of interest" or a "weather alert day" and when it comes to issuing a "weather alert day" I want to be confident that the severe weather potential is at a level where something like that is needed. So in the meantime stay tuned for updates as I continue monitor the track on this storm setup and if I see it needed if warranted I will issue the "weather alert day" for Friday.Current Setup:
Our current setup for Friday is there is a chance for rain Friday morning if that does take place that could help stabilize the atmosphere and this would help lessen the severe weather potential as the amount of time between the rain Friday morning then the actual severe storm chance Friday afternoon would not have enough time to recover limiting the strength of the possible severe storms Friday afternoon. If the rain holds off Friday morning then the atmosphere would remain unstable which means storms will not lose strength and only keeps the chances for severe weather slightly higher. With all that in mind that is where I am going to be monitoring the model trends between now and Friday to see what the track decides to do during Morning on Friday to then determine the severe weather threat for Friday afternoon. Overall the current track suggest that Southwestern portions of Southern Indiana is the area with the best chance for severe weather, we will see if that holds true when I reevaluate the models tomorrow. Threats:
If we do see any Severe Weather on Friday Afternoon the main threats look to be damaging winds as the primary threat, large hail as the secondary threat, and then a isolated tornado threat can't be ruled out as supercell activity is being picked up slightly on the models as of now will see what that looks like closer to time but most of all not a widespread tornado outbreak by any means but something to watch out for. Timing:
Timing on this severe weather chance looks like anywhere from between 2 and 3pm EDT. Friday afternoon as the start time and ending for Southern Indiana after 12am EDT. maybe a few lingering showers at 1 and 2am EDT. but I think all severe activity should be winding down by 12am EDT. I must stress that this current thinking on timing is based off of current model trends and that there will likely be adjustments as we get closer to time so stay tuned for that.
I will continue to watch the track on this severe weather potential and will update on here again likely tomorrow evening so be on the look out for another update then. For now "DAY OF INTEREST" for Friday (this means I am watching for potential of severe storms and will update as per necessary during the time of event and or leading up to the event).
WeatherPosted by Kameron Douglas Thu, June 28, 2018 01:19AM
We are finally catching a break from the rain, however a few leftover showers make try to stick around Thursday for areas in the southwest part of Southern Indiana. That in mind there is a marginal risk for severe storms for a small portion of Southern Indiana areas like Posey County and Evansville. Below is the risk map that is showing areas that I am referring to as far as the risk for severe weather goes.
The perk to having the rain the past several days is it has kept the heat and humidity levels at a somewhat comfortable level but now that the rain chances will be gone the next several days the heat and humidity levels will be on the rise.
Temperatures on Thursday will rise to the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s to near 100 degrees.
By Friday and continuing into the weekend highs will be in the 90s with heat indices ranging between 100-105 degrees. That in mind I wouldn't be surprised if the "National Weather Service" would decide to issue a "Heat Advisory" for Friday and even Saturday and Sunday possibly as well.
Be sure to stay properly hydrated and if you plan to be outdoors wear sunscreen!